Housing Market Update: A Record Share of Home Sellers Drop Prices As High Rates Cut Into Buyers’ Budgets

Housing Market Update: A Record Share of Home Sellers Drop Prices As High Rates Cut Into Buyers’ Budgets

  • Keri White
  • November 2, 2023
Nearly 7% of for-sale homes posted a price drop during the four weeks ending October 29, on average, the highest portion on record. The record comes as mortgage rates hover at elevated levels, hitting their highest level in 23 years last week and cutting deep into buyers’ budgets. High rates have forced some sellers to lower their asking price to make up for high interest rates on monthly payments. It’s worth noting that buyers are getting a bit of relief this week, at least temporarily: Economic events sent daily average mortgage rates from 8% down to 7.5% over the last week. 
 
Sale prices are still up 3% from a year ago. That’s partly because sale-price data is a lagging indicator, reflecting deals that went under contract a month or two ago. Growth in sale prices may slow in the coming months as it starts to reflect sales that went under contract as mortgage rates hit 8% in October. 
 
Another reason for rising sale prices is that despite slow demand, low inventory is propping up prices. The total number of homes for sale is down 10% year over year; new listings are up 1% from a year ago–just the second increase since July 2022–but that’s partly due to new listings falling quickly at this time last year. Price drops becoming more prevalent than ever while prices continue increasing illustrates today’s bizarre housing market. Redfin agents describe a mismatch between sellers’ high expectations and the reality of buyers’ budgets, saying it’s more important than ever for sellers to price fairly from the start to attract buyers and sell quickly. 
 
“Some sellers are pricing too high because they have FOMO after their neighbor’s house sold well over asking price two years ago,” said Seattle Redfin Premier agent Patrick Beringer. “While low inventory is driving some competition and relatively affordable homes in popular neighborhoods are still selling fast, they’re getting two or three offers as opposed to 20 offers at the height of the market. With mortgage rates in the 7.5% to 8% range, buyers simply don’t have the budget they would have had two years ago or even one year ago.”
 
In the Seattle metro, for instance, the typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment is $232 more than it would have been a year ago. It’s nearly $2,000 more than it would have been two years ago. 
 

Seattle metro area: Homebuyer’s typical monthly mortgage payments

 

Average mortgage rate (30-year fixed)

Median home-sale price

Typical monthly mortgage payment 

Late October 2021

3.14%

$723,000

$3,218

Late October 2022

7.08%

$762,000

$4,863

Late October 2023

7.76% 

$774,500

$5,095

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

 

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.51% (Nov. 2)

Down from 7.9% a week earlier

Up from 7.09%

Mortgage News Daily 

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.76% (week ending Nov. 2)

Down slightly from 7.79% a week ago; still near highest level in 23 years

Up from 7.08%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Oct. 27)

Down 22% to its lowest level in nearly 30 years

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down 6% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Oct. 29) 

Down 1%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Google searches for “home for sale”

 

Down 6% from a month earlier (as of Oct. 28)

Down 12%

Google Trends 

Touring activity

Down 16% from the start of the year

 

At this time last year, it was down 27% from the start of 2022

ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending October 29, 2023

 

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. 

 

Four weeks ending October 29, 2023

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$369,613

3.4%

Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year

Median asking price

$383,200

5.4%

Biggest increase in a year

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,757 at a 7.76% mortgage rate

12%

$16 shy of all-time high set a week earlier

Pending sales

68,693

-8.8%

 

New listings

79,906

1.1%

Second year-over-year increase since July 2022; the first was a week earlier. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last  year. 

Active listings

858,570

-10.2%

Smallest decline since July 

Months of supply 

3.7 months

+0.3 pts. 

Highest level since February

 

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. 

Share of homes off market in two weeks 

37.7%

Up from 34%

 

Median days on market

33

-2  days

 

Share of homes sold above list price

29.4%

Up from 28%

 

Share of homes with a price drop

6.9%

+0.2 pts.

Record high 

Average sale-to-list price ratio 

99.1%

+0.4 pts. 

 

 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending October 29, 2023

 

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. 

 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases

Notes

Median sale price

Newark, NJ (14.8%)

 

San Jose, CA (13.6)

Anaheim, CA (11.5%)

West Palm Beach, FL (10.6%)

Columbus, OH (10.3%)

Austin, TX (-6%)

 

Fort Worth, TX (-3%)

Tampa, FL (-1.8%)

Portland, OR (-1.2%)

San Antonio, TX (-1.1%)

Declined in 5 metros 

Pending sales

Austin, TX (2%)

 

Tampa, FL (1.3%)

Las Vegas (0.2%)

Portland, OR (-23.5%)

 

Sacramento, CA (-21.6%)

San Antonio, TX (-21.6%)

Seattle (-18.1%)

Newark, NJ (-16.4%)

Declined in all but 3 metros

New listings

Phoenix (13.9%)

 

San Jose, CA (12.7%)

Miami (12.1%)

Tampa, FL (10.7%)

West Palm Beach, FL (10.6%)

Atlanta (-22.5%)

 

Portland, OR (-14.7%)

Seattle (-12%)

Nashville, TN (-10.2%)

San Antonio, TX (-9.8%)

Increased in 16 metros 


Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.

Chart of median home sale prices by year; October 29, 2023, price is $369,613, up 3.4% year over year.

Line chart of median asking prices by year; 2023 reaches $383,200 on October 29, up 5.4% year over year.

Line chart shows 2023 homebuyer payments rising to $2,757, 12.3% higher year over year.

Chart of weekly pending home sales by year; 2023 falls to 68,693 on October 29, down 8.8% year over year.

Line chart shows weekly new home listings by year; 2023 reached 79,906 on October 29, up 1.1% year over year.

Line chart comparing home listings from 2020 to 2023; October 2023 listings were 858,570, down 10.2% year over year.

Chart of housing supply by month from 2020 to 2023, with 3.7 months available on October 29, 2023.

Line chart of pending home sales under contract within two weeks, with the October 29 figure marked at 37.7%.

Line chart compares days on market for sold homes by month from 2020 to 2023.

Line chart comparing monthly shares of homes sold above list price in 2020, 2021, and 2022; 2022 reached 29.4% on Oct. 29.

Line chart shows 2023 home listings with price drops reaching 6.9% by October 29.

Line chart compares monthly home sale-to-list-price ratios from 2020 to 2023; 2023 is 99.1% on October 29.

Redfin chart compares weekly homebuyer demand from 2020 to 2023; the 2023 index is 107.1, down 1% year over year.

 

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